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World seaborne coking coal demand to exceed 360m t/y by 2015 - 12 March 2012

Seaborne coking coal demand 2010-2015 (m tonnes)

Source: Credit Suisse, *excl. India + China

 

2010

2011 E

2013 F

2015 F

% change
2011-2015

EU 27

40.5

39.3

40

42

7

Asia*

100

95

103

110

16

India

34

34

38

50

47

China

49.1

43.3

70.2

92.8

114

N. America

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

-

S. America

14.9

16

20.8

23

44

Turkey

4.6

5

6.5

6.5

30

ROW

27.3

25.7

30.7

31.7

23

Total

277.9

265.8

316.7

363.5

37

Global demand for seaborne coking coal will rise by more than a third to over 363.5 million tonnes by 2015 compared to 2011, said Hans-Joachim Welsch, ceo of German pig iron producer Rogesa. World-wide seaborne coking coal demand in 2010 was 278mt, slipping to 265mt last year, he added, based on figures from banking group Credit Suisse.

Welsch was talking at the Handelsblatt Stahlmarkt conference in Düsseldorf last week. The largest growth in demand over the next five years will come from China, followed some way behind by India, and Central and South America, he noted (see table).

Turkish demand will level off over the next year or so, rising from 5m t/y last year to 6.5m t/y, while annual EU-27 demand will also increase by over 2.5m t/y by 2015.

“This shows that while there are no particular problems [for EU producers] to secure coking coal at present, the problems of the past might return in the future,” Welsch told Steel Business Briefing. The biggest issue will be the shortage of particular qualities, he added.

 

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